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>TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT STATEMENT
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WHCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL STORM TAMMY ALERT STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND
BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
5:00 PM ECT FRI, OCT 20, 2023
THIS IS FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT MEANS, IN THIS CASE, THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS IN THE MONITORED AREA OF CONCERN, AND WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED AT A LATER DATE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
AT 5 PM AST OR 2100 UTC, THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 59.2 WEST OR 396 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BVI.
TAMMY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED BY TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD TURN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF TAMMY WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, AND THEN MOVE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH (120 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND TAMMY IS EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE WHILE IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA IS 992 MB (29.27 INCHES).
BASED ON THE LATEST INFORMATION, TAMMY IS FORECAST TO PASS A LITTLE OVER 100 MILES EAST OF THE BVI EARLY SUNDAY AS A HURRICANE WITH MOST OF STRONG WINDS CONCENTRATED ON THE EAST OF THE STORM. THIS MEANS THAT STORM CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THESE ISLANDS AT THIS TIME.; HOWEVER, THIS COULD CHANGE IF A WESTWARD TRACK PERSIST LONGER THAN EXPECTED.
RESIDENTS OF THE BVI ARE THEREFORE URGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TAMMY AND BE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT THEIR HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS PLANS.
A TROPICAL STROM WATCH IS NOT REQUIRED AT THIS TIME FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY CHANGES.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY 11PM .
FORECASTER
LORNE SALMON/TRECY SPENCER-LAKE